I know it seems I am constantly talking about forecasts and economic conditions, and it’s probably because I am. Basically I get asked a few times a week about the economy, about the different projections online, and about the different data points, so I like sharing it here. This week had more of the same because several stories came out with reviews of both the first six months of 2016 and more recent month-to-month reporting. The story tones were mixed, mostly because the data was.
On the positive side, the AIA released a mid-year update, and while noting several roadblocks current and possible, the report was very confident in a positive finish to 2016 and an entire 2017.
On the flip side, Dodge had their midyear piece and was not as confident, focusing more on the fact that we had fantastic growth and it’s slowing down a bit from that. Add to that the release that construction spending went down for a third straight month, and you could start sensing concern. The analysts I follow and trust are still very much in the positive camp and actually expect some of these reports to be revised up after further review. A good, quick piece from Bloomberg spells some of it out. Plus we are actually still ahead of 2015 by 6 percent. Basically we are quibbling over how much growth and not just staying positive. In addition, the mid-year consensus has growth predicted to finish at almost 6 percent this year AND next.
Still, the memories of 2009 and 2010 are amazingly fresh in many of our minds and the time it took to really get cranking again seemed to be forever. So whenever we have these blips on the radar, it does cause some angst. Bottom line for me right now is we’re in a good place. Let’s keep rolling but continue to monitor the trends.
One item that can and will have an effect, but is still unknown, is the U.S. Presidential election. In normal cycles a Presidential election has an effect of some type. For those of us living in the U.S., this cycle is as far from normal as you can get. So that is surely an item to always have in the back of your head.
- I am surely one who tries to support anything sustainable, but I have a question for those of you experts out there. I am online ordering tickets for a few upcoming ballgames. The site notes in order to “stay green” that paper tickets are unavailable. OK that makes sense. ut then they note, mobile and electronic entry are not available so you need to “print your tickets at home.” So my question is, how are we being more sustainable if I print the tickets vs. the venue printing?
- Fun picture-laden piece that came via the great Twitter feed of Viracon’s Garret Henson (@Viracon_Garret) on fritted glass. I love looking at the buildings and usage of glass, but I will say the article is a bit shortsighted. There are many more options than they listed or focused on to meet these aesthetic goals, and I would’ve liked to have seen them mentioned. Despite that glaring omission, I love when glass is shown off like this. I just may have to do my own splashy photo piece showing the options!
- On that note of great looking glass, I really enjoyed the blog post from Moon Shadow's Kris Iverson last week on the Glassblog. Clear, concise and helpful piece, and yet another reminder that communication rules.
- Last this week, The Olympics are underway. If you can remember, this was the one that the U.S. badly wanted for Chicago. The effort fell short back in 2009 when the games were awarded, but can you imagine IF Chicago would’ve won? With the security shown at four-day events like political conventions, I could only imagine the mess Chicago would’ve been during this. Oh, and with an Olympiad that close, I would’ve done everything to go, too… I know my pal Tom O’Malley of Clover Architectural with his Chicago connections would’ve taken great care of me!
Max Perilstein is founder of Sole Source Consultants, a consulting firm for the building products industry that specializes in marketing, branding, communication strategy and overall reputation management, as well as website and social media, and codes and specifications.E-mail him at MaxP@SoleSourceConsultants.com.
The opinions expressed here are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Glass Association, Glass Magazine editors, or other glassblog contributors.